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Medeama vs Bofoakwe Tano — Premier League 2019

Medeama
Medeama
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bofoakwe Tano
Bofoakwe Tano
1/13/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 14Akoon Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Medeama57%
×Draw28%
Bofoakwe Tano15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Medeama
1.36
Bofoakwe Tano
0.54

Medeama creates 152% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 17 away

creates per match

Medeama
1.44
Bofoakwe Tano
0.59

allows per match

Medeama
0.49
Bofoakwe Tano
1.29

finishing

Medeama+0.00on par
Bofoakwe Tano+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Medeama ↓

Bofoakwe Tano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Medeama or draw
85%
Medeama or Bofoakwe Tano
72%
Draw or Bofoakwe Tano
43%

Winning margin

Medeama wins by 2+
28%
Bofoakwe Tano wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Medeama 1+ goals
74%
Medeama 2+ goals
39%
Medeama 3+ goals
16%
Bofoakwe Tano 1+ goals
42%
Bofoakwe Tano 2+ goals
10%
Bofoakwe Tano 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Medeama (draw refunded)
79%
Bofoakwe Tano (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Medeama at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.49 · 108 matches

Bofoakwe Tano away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Medeama attack 1.44 + Bofoakwe Tano defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.36

Bofoakwe Tano attack 0.59 + Medeama defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Medeama scores more
57%
level
28%
Bofoakwe Tano scores more
15%

Medeama at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Medeama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Medeama 0–0 Bofoakwe Tano

Medeama and Bofoakwe Tano drew 0-0 in Premier League on January 13, 2024.

The match was played at Akoon Park in Tarkwa.