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Medeama vs Berekum Chelsea — Premier League 2019

Medeama
Medeama
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Berekum Chelsea
Berekum Chelsea
6/8/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 34TNA Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Medeama59%
×Draw26%
Berekum Chelsea15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Medeama
1.50
Berekum Chelsea
0.61

Medeama creates 146% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 108 away

creates per match

Medeama
1.44
Berekum Chelsea
0.73

allows per match

Medeama
0.49
Berekum Chelsea
1.57

finishing

Medeama+0.00on par
Berekum Chelsea+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Medeama ↓

Berekum Chelsea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Medeama or draw
85%
Medeama or Berekum Chelsea
74%
Draw or Berekum Chelsea
41%

Winning margin

Medeama wins by 2+
31%
Berekum Chelsea wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Medeama 1+ goals
78%
Medeama 2+ goals
44%
Medeama 3+ goals
19%
Berekum Chelsea 1+ goals
46%
Berekum Chelsea 2+ goals
13%
Berekum Chelsea 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Medeama (draw refunded)
80%
Berekum Chelsea (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Medeama at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.49 · 108 matches

Berekum Chelsea away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.57 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Medeama attack 1.44 + Berekum Chelsea defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.50

Berekum Chelsea attack 0.73 + Medeama defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Medeama scores more
59%
level
26%
Berekum Chelsea scores more
15%

Medeama at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Medeama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Medeama vs Berekum Chelsea

Berekum Chelsea beat Medeama 2-1 in Premier League on June 8, 2025.

The match was played at TNA Park in Tarkwa.