Medeama 0–1 Al Ahly: Result & Stats

Medeama

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Al Ahly

2/23/2024

CAF Champions League · Group D - 5Baba Yara Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Medeama34%

×Draw31%

Al Ahly35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MedeamaExpected goals in this matchAl Ahly

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.03

Medeama

1.00

Al Ahly

1.03

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 46 away

1.40

creates per match

1.26

0.80

allows per match

0.61

creates per match

Medeama

1.40

Al Ahly

1.26

allows per match

Medeama

0.80

Al Ahly

0.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Medeama+0.00on par

Al Ahly+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Medeama ↓

Al Ahly →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Medeama or draw

65%

Medeama or Al Ahly

69%

Draw or Al Ahly

66%

Winning margin

Medeama wins by 2+

13%

Al Ahly wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Medeama 1+ goals

63%

Medeama 2+ goals

26%

Medeama 3+ goals

8%

Al Ahly 1+ goals

64%

Al Ahly 2+ goals

28%

Al Ahly 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Medeama (draw refunded)

49%

Al Ahly (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Medeama at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Al Ahly away — creates 1.26, concedes 0.61 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Medeama attack 1.40 + Al Ahly defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 1.00

Al Ahly attack 1.26 + Medeama defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Medeama scores more

34%

level

31%

Al Ahly scores more

35%

Al Ahly at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Al Ahly will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff