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Mecklenburg Schwerin vs Victoria Seelow — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Mecklenburg Schwerin
Mecklenburg Schwerin
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Victoria Seelow
Victoria Seelow
5/15/2022Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 28Sportpark Lankow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Mecklenburg Schwerin48%
×Draw22%
Victoria Seelow30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mecklenburg Schwerin
1.99
Victoria Seelow
1.54

Mecklenburg Schwerin creates 29% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 18 away

creates per match

Mecklenburg Schwerin
1.21
Victoria Seelow
0.89

allows per match

Mecklenburg Schwerin
2.18
Victoria Seelow
2.78

finishing

Mecklenburg Schwerin+0.00on par
Victoria Seelow+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mecklenburg Schwerin ↓

Victoria Seelow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Mecklenburg Schwerin or draw
70%
Mecklenburg Schwerin or Victoria Seelow
78%
Draw or Victoria Seelow
52%

Winning margin

Mecklenburg Schwerin wins by 2+
27%
Victoria Seelow wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Mecklenburg Schwerin 1+ goals
86%
Mecklenburg Schwerin 2+ goals
59%
Mecklenburg Schwerin 3+ goals
32%
Victoria Seelow 1+ goals
79%
Victoria Seelow 2+ goals
45%
Victoria Seelow 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Mecklenburg Schwerin (draw refunded)
62%
Victoria Seelow (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mecklenburg Schwerin at home — creates 1.21, concedes 2.18 · 33 matches

Victoria Seelow away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.78 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mecklenburg Schwerin attack 1.21 + Victoria Seelow defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 1.99

Victoria Seelow attack 0.89 + Mecklenburg Schwerin defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Mecklenburg Schwerin scores more
48%
level
22%
Victoria Seelow scores more
30%

Mecklenburg Schwerin at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Mecklenburg Schwerin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mecklenburg Schwerin vs Victoria Seelow

Mecklenburg Schwerin beat Victoria Seelow 3-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on May 15, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark Lankow in Schwerin.