Mecklenburg Schwerin 0–2 Stern: Result & Stats

Mecklenburg Schwerin

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Stern

4/16/2022

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 24Sportpark Lankow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Mecklenburg Schwerin33%

×Draw23%

Stern44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mecklenburg SchwerinExpected goals in this matchStern

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.74

Mecklenburg Schwerin

1.48

Stern

1.74

Stern creates 18% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 21 away

1.21

creates per match

1.29

2.18

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Mecklenburg Schwerin

1.21

Stern

1.29

allows per match

Mecklenburg Schwerin

2.18

Stern

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mecklenburg Schwerin+0.00on par

Stern+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mecklenburg Schwerin ↓

Stern →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Mecklenburg Schwerin or draw

56%

Mecklenburg Schwerin or Stern

77%

Draw or Stern

67%

Winning margin

Mecklenburg Schwerin wins by 2+

15%

Stern wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Mecklenburg Schwerin 1+ goals

77%

Mecklenburg Schwerin 2+ goals

43%

Mecklenburg Schwerin 3+ goals

19%

Stern 1+ goals

82%

Stern 2+ goals

52%

Stern 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Mecklenburg Schwerin (draw refunded)

43%

Stern (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mecklenburg Schwerin at home — creates 1.21, concedes 2.18 · 33 matches

Stern away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.76 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mecklenburg Schwerin attack 1.21 + Stern defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.48

Stern attack 1.29 + Mecklenburg Schwerin defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Mecklenburg Schwerin scores more

33%

level

23%

Stern scores more

44%

Stern at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Stern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff