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Mechtersheim vs Pfeddersheim — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Mechtersheim
Mechtersheim
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Pfeddersheim
Pfeddersheim
9/30/2023Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 14Stadion an der Kirschenallee

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Mechtersheim55%
×Draw21%
Pfeddersheim24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mechtersheim
2.16
Pfeddersheim
1.36

Mechtersheim creates 59% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 45 away

creates per match

Mechtersheim
1.90
Pfeddersheim
1.22

allows per match

Mechtersheim
1.51
Pfeddersheim
2.42

finishing

Mechtersheim+0.00on par
Pfeddersheim+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mechtersheim ↓

Pfeddersheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Mechtersheim or draw
76%
Mechtersheim or Pfeddersheim
79%
Draw or Pfeddersheim
45%

Winning margin

Mechtersheim wins by 2+
34%
Pfeddersheim wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Mechtersheim 1+ goals
88%
Mechtersheim 2+ goals
63%
Mechtersheim 3+ goals
36%
Pfeddersheim 1+ goals
74%
Pfeddersheim 2+ goals
39%
Pfeddersheim 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Mechtersheim (draw refunded)
70%
Pfeddersheim (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mechtersheim at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.51 · 61 matches

Pfeddersheim away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.42 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mechtersheim attack 1.90 + Pfeddersheim defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.16

Pfeddersheim attack 1.22 + Mechtersheim defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Mechtersheim scores more
55%
level
21%
Pfeddersheim scores more
24%

Mechtersheim at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Mechtersheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mechtersheim vs Pfeddersheim

Mechtersheim beat Pfeddersheim 3-0 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on September 30, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion an der Kirschenallee in Römerberg.