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Mechtersheim vs Jägersburg — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Mechtersheim
Mechtersheim
CANC
14:00
Jägersburg
Jägersburg
12/12/2020Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 16Stadion an der Kirschenallee

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Mechtersheim57%
×Draw20%
Jägersburg24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mechtersheim
2.37
Jägersburg
1.50

Mechtersheim creates 58% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 25 away

creates per match

Mechtersheim
1.90
Jägersburg
1.48

allows per match

Mechtersheim
1.51
Jägersburg
2.84

finishing

Mechtersheim+0.00on par
Jägersburg+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mechtersheim ↓

Jägersburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Mechtersheim or draw
76%
Mechtersheim or Jägersburg
80%
Draw or Jägersburg
43%

Winning margin

Mechtersheim wins by 2+
35%
Jägersburg wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Mechtersheim 1+ goals
91%
Mechtersheim 2+ goals
68%
Mechtersheim 3+ goals
42%
Jägersburg 1+ goals
78%
Jägersburg 2+ goals
44%
Jägersburg 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Mechtersheim (draw refunded)
70%
Jägersburg (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mechtersheim at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.51 · 61 matches

Jägersburg away — creates 1.48, concedes 2.84 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mechtersheim attack 1.90 + Jägersburg defence 2.84 → ÷2 → 2.37

Jägersburg attack 1.48 + Mechtersheim defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Mechtersheim scores more
57%
level
20%
Jägersburg scores more
24%

Mechtersheim at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Mechtersheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mechtersheim face Jägersburg (Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar)

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar returns with Mechtersheim hosting Jägersburg. Match starts December 12, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Mechtersheim host Jägersburg at Stadion an der Kirschenallee.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.