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Mechtersheim vs Elversberg II — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Mechtersheim
Mechtersheim
FT
3 – 2
Elversberg II
Elversberg II
9/25/2021Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 9Stadion an der Kirschenallee

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Mechtersheim58%
×Draw20%
Elversberg II22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mechtersheim
2.20
Elversberg II
1.29

Mechtersheim creates 71% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 26 away

creates per match

Mechtersheim
1.90
Elversberg II
1.08

allows per match

Mechtersheim
1.51
Elversberg II
2.50

finishing

Mechtersheim+0.00on par
Elversberg II+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mechtersheim ↓

Elversberg II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Mechtersheim or draw
78%
Mechtersheim or Elversberg II
80%
Draw or Elversberg II
42%

Winning margin

Mechtersheim wins by 2+
36%
Elversberg II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Mechtersheim 1+ goals
89%
Mechtersheim 2+ goals
64%
Mechtersheim 3+ goals
37%
Elversberg II 1+ goals
72%
Elversberg II 2+ goals
37%
Elversberg II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Mechtersheim (draw refunded)
73%
Elversberg II (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mechtersheim at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.51 · 61 matches

Elversberg II away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.50 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mechtersheim attack 1.90 + Elversberg II defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.20

Elversberg II attack 1.08 + Mechtersheim defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Mechtersheim scores more
58%
level
20%
Elversberg II scores more
22%

Mechtersheim at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Mechtersheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar: Mechtersheim 3–2 Elversberg II

Mechtersheim beat Elversberg II 3-2 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on September 25, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion an der Kirschenallee in Römerberg.