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Mechtersheim vs Eintracht Trier — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Mechtersheim
Mechtersheim
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Eintracht Trier
Eintracht Trier
3/2/2024Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 25Stadion an der Kirschenallee

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Mechtersheim27%
×Draw21%
Eintracht Trier51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mechtersheim
1.50
Eintracht Trier
2.11

Eintracht Trier creates 41% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 34 away

creates per match

Mechtersheim
1.90
Eintracht Trier
2.71

allows per match

Mechtersheim
1.51
Eintracht Trier
1.09

finishing

Mechtersheim+0.00on par
Eintracht Trier+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mechtersheim ↓

Eintracht Trier →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Mechtersheim or draw
49%
Mechtersheim or Eintracht Trier
79%
Draw or Eintracht Trier
73%

Winning margin

Mechtersheim wins by 2+
12%
Eintracht Trier wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Mechtersheim 1+ goals
78%
Mechtersheim 2+ goals
44%
Mechtersheim 3+ goals
19%
Eintracht Trier 1+ goals
88%
Eintracht Trier 2+ goals
62%
Eintracht Trier 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Mechtersheim (draw refunded)
35%
Eintracht Trier (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mechtersheim at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.51 · 61 matches

Eintracht Trier away — creates 2.71, concedes 1.09 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mechtersheim attack 1.90 + Eintracht Trier defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.50

Eintracht Trier attack 2.71 + Mechtersheim defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 2.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Mechtersheim scores more
27%
level
21%
Eintracht Trier scores more
51%

Eintracht Trier at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Eintracht Trier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar: Mechtersheim 1–3 Eintracht Trier

Eintracht Trier beat Mechtersheim 3-1 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion an der Kirschenallee in Römerberg.