Mechtersheim 3–1 Baumholder: Result & Stats

Mechtersheim

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Baumholder

5/1/2024

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 34Stadion an der Kirschenallee

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Mechtersheim53%

×Draw22%

Baumholder25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MechtersheimExpected goals in this matchBaumholder

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.33

Mechtersheim

2.00

Baumholder

1.33

Mechtersheim creates 50% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 19 away

1.90

creates per match

1.16

1.51

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Mechtersheim

1.90

Baumholder

1.16

allows per match

Mechtersheim

1.51

Baumholder

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mechtersheim+0.00on par

Baumholder+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mechtersheim ↓

Baumholder →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Mechtersheim or draw

75%

Mechtersheim or Baumholder

78%

Draw or Baumholder

47%

Winning margin

Mechtersheim wins by 2+

31%

Baumholder wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Mechtersheim 1+ goals

86%

Mechtersheim 2+ goals

59%

Mechtersheim 3+ goals

32%

Baumholder 1+ goals

74%

Baumholder 2+ goals

38%

Baumholder 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Mechtersheim (draw refunded)

68%

Baumholder (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mechtersheim at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.51 · 61 matches

Baumholder away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mechtersheim attack 1.90 + Baumholder defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.00

Baumholder attack 1.16 + Mechtersheim defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Mechtersheim scores more

53%

level

22%

Baumholder scores more

25%

Mechtersheim at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Mechtersheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff