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Mechtersheim vs Arminia Ludwigshafen — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Mechtersheim
Mechtersheim
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Arminia Ludwigshafen
Arminia Ludwigshafen
11/29/2024Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 19Stadion an der Kirschenallee

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Mechtersheim46%
×Draw21%
Arminia Ludwigshafen33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mechtersheim
2.03
Arminia Ludwigshafen
1.69

Mechtersheim creates 20% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 79 away

creates per match

Mechtersheim
1.90
Arminia Ludwigshafen
1.87

allows per match

Mechtersheim
1.51
Arminia Ludwigshafen
2.16

finishing

Mechtersheim+0.00on par
Arminia Ludwigshafen+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mechtersheim ↓

Arminia Ludwigshafen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Mechtersheim or draw
67%
Mechtersheim or Arminia Ludwigshafen
79%
Draw or Arminia Ludwigshafen
54%

Winning margin

Mechtersheim wins by 2+
26%
Arminia Ludwigshafen wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Mechtersheim 1+ goals
87%
Mechtersheim 2+ goals
60%
Mechtersheim 3+ goals
33%
Arminia Ludwigshafen 1+ goals
82%
Arminia Ludwigshafen 2+ goals
50%
Arminia Ludwigshafen 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Mechtersheim (draw refunded)
58%
Arminia Ludwigshafen (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mechtersheim at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.51 · 61 matches

Arminia Ludwigshafen away — creates 1.87, concedes 2.16 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mechtersheim attack 1.90 + Arminia Ludwigshafen defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.03

Arminia Ludwigshafen attack 1.87 + Mechtersheim defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mechtersheim scores more
46%
level
21%
Arminia Ludwigshafen scores more
33%

Mechtersheim at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mechtersheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar: Mechtersheim 1–2 Arminia Ludwigshafen

Arminia Ludwigshafen beat Mechtersheim 2-1 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on November 29, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion an der Kirschenallee in Römerberg.