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Mebrat Hayl vs Wolkite Ketema — Premier League 2019

Mebrat Hayl
Mebrat Hayl
CANC
13:00
Wolkite Ketema
Wolkite Ketema
12/18/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 13Dire Dawa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Mebrat Hayl34%
×Draw30%
Wolkite Ketema36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mebrat Hayl
1.01
Wolkite Ketema
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 66 away

creates per match

Mebrat Hayl
0.82
Wolkite Ketema
1.14

allows per match

Mebrat Hayl
0.98
Wolkite Ketema
1.21

finishing

Mebrat Hayl+0.00on par
Wolkite Ketema+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mebrat Hayl ↓

Wolkite Ketema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Mebrat Hayl or draw
64%
Mebrat Hayl or Wolkite Ketema
70%
Draw or Wolkite Ketema
66%

Winning margin

Mebrat Hayl wins by 2+
13%
Wolkite Ketema wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Mebrat Hayl 1+ goals
64%
Mebrat Hayl 2+ goals
27%
Mebrat Hayl 3+ goals
8%
Wolkite Ketema 1+ goals
65%
Wolkite Ketema 2+ goals
29%
Wolkite Ketema 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Mebrat Hayl (draw refunded)
48%
Wolkite Ketema (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mebrat Hayl at home — creates 0.82, concedes 0.98 · 51 matches

Wolkite Ketema away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.21 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mebrat Hayl attack 0.82 + Wolkite Ketema defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.01

Wolkite Ketema attack 1.14 + Mebrat Hayl defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Mebrat Hayl scores more
34%
level
30%
Wolkite Ketema scores more
36%

Wolkite Ketema at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Wolkite Ketema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mebrat Hayl vs Wolkite Ketema — Match Preview

Mebrat Hayl face Wolkite Ketema on December 18, 2024 in this Premier League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Mebrat Hayl host Wolkite Ketema at Dire Dawa Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.