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MCF vs Zoo Kericho — Super League 2018

MCF
MCF
FT
2 – 5
Zoo Kericho
Zoo Kericho
1/15/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 2Utalii Football Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

MCF42%
×Draw26%
Zoo Kericho32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MCF
1.45
Zoo Kericho
1.24

MCF creates 17% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 14 away

creates per match

MCF
1.26
Zoo Kericho
1.64

allows per match

MCF
0.85
Zoo Kericho
1.64

finishing

MCF+0.00on par
Zoo Kericho+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MCF ↓

Zoo Kericho →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

MCF or draw
68%
MCF or Zoo Kericho
74%
Draw or Zoo Kericho
58%

Winning margin

MCF wins by 2+
20%
Zoo Kericho wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

MCF 1+ goals
77%
MCF 2+ goals
42%
MCF 3+ goals
18%
Zoo Kericho 1+ goals
71%
Zoo Kericho 2+ goals
35%
Zoo Kericho 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

MCF (draw refunded)
56%
Zoo Kericho (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MCF at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.85 · 89 matches

Zoo Kericho away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MCF attack 1.26 + Zoo Kericho defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.45

Zoo Kericho attack 1.64 + MCF defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

MCF scores more
42%
level
26%
Zoo Kericho scores more
32%

MCF at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "MCF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: MCF 2–5 Zoo Kericho

Zoo Kericho beat MCF 5-2 in Super League on January 15, 2022.

The match was played at Utalii Football Field in Nairobi.