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MCF vs SamWest Blackboots — Super League 2018

MCF
MCF
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
SamWest Blackboots
SamWest Blackboots
Unknown 55'
N. Onchiri 73'
1/12/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 15Kenyatta Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

MCF40%
×Draw27%
SamWest Blackboots32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MCF
1.31
SamWest Blackboots
1.14

MCF creates 15% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 19 away

creates per match

MCF
1.26
SamWest Blackboots
1.42

allows per match

MCF
0.85
SamWest Blackboots
1.37

finishing

MCF+0.00on par
SamWest Blackboots+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MCF ↓

SamWest Blackboots →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

MCF or draw
68%
MCF or SamWest Blackboots
73%
Draw or SamWest Blackboots
60%

Winning margin

MCF wins by 2+
18%
SamWest Blackboots wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

MCF 1+ goals
73%
MCF 2+ goals
38%
MCF 3+ goals
14%
SamWest Blackboots 1+ goals
68%
SamWest Blackboots 2+ goals
32%
SamWest Blackboots 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

MCF (draw refunded)
56%
SamWest Blackboots (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MCF at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.85 · 89 matches

SamWest Blackboots away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MCF attack 1.26 + SamWest Blackboots defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.31

SamWest Blackboots attack 1.42 + MCF defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

MCF scores more
40%
level
27%
SamWest Blackboots scores more
32%

MCF at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "MCF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'
73'
N. Onchiri

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: MCF vs SamWest Blackboots

MCF and SamWest Blackboots drew 1-1 in Super League on January 12, 2025.

Goals: ? (55'), N. Onchiri (73').

The match was played at Kenyatta Stadium in Machakos.