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MCF vs Rainbow — Super League 2018

MCF
MCF
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rainbow
Rainbow
12/9/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 13Kenyatta Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

MCF48%
×Draw28%
Rainbow24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MCF
1.34
Rainbow
0.87

MCF creates 54% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 19 away

creates per match

MCF
1.26
Rainbow
0.89

allows per match

MCF
0.85
Rainbow
1.42

finishing

MCF+0.00on par
Rainbow+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MCF ↓

Rainbow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

MCF or draw
76%
MCF or Rainbow
72%
Draw or Rainbow
52%

Winning margin

MCF wins by 2+
23%
Rainbow wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

MCF 1+ goals
74%
MCF 2+ goals
39%
MCF 3+ goals
15%
Rainbow 1+ goals
58%
Rainbow 2+ goals
22%
Rainbow 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

MCF (draw refunded)
66%
Rainbow (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MCF at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.85 · 89 matches

Rainbow away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MCF attack 1.26 + Rainbow defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.34

Rainbow attack 0.89 + MCF defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

MCF scores more
48%
level
28%
Rainbow scores more
24%

MCF at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "MCF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

MCF 0 – 0 Rainbow

MCF and Rainbow drew 0-0 in Super League on December 9, 2023.

The match was played at Kenyatta Stadium in Machakos.