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MCF vs Luanda Villa — Super League 2018

MCF
MCF
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Luanda Villa
Luanda Villa
11/23/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

MCF49%
×Draw29%
Luanda Villa22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MCF
1.28
Luanda Villa
0.74

MCF creates 73% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 56 away

creates per match

MCF
1.26
Luanda Villa
0.64

allows per match

MCF
0.85
Luanda Villa
1.30

finishing

MCF+0.00on par
Luanda Villa+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MCF ↓

Luanda Villa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

MCF or draw
78%
MCF or Luanda Villa
71%
Draw or Luanda Villa
51%

Winning margin

MCF wins by 2+
23%
Luanda Villa wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

MCF 1+ goals
72%
MCF 2+ goals
37%
MCF 3+ goals
14%
Luanda Villa 1+ goals
52%
Luanda Villa 2+ goals
17%
Luanda Villa 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

MCF (draw refunded)
70%
Luanda Villa (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MCF at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.85 · 89 matches

Luanda Villa away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.30 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MCF attack 1.26 + Luanda Villa defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.28

Luanda Villa attack 0.64 + MCF defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

MCF scores more
49%
level
29%
Luanda Villa scores more
22%

MCF at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "MCF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: MCF vs Luanda Villa

MCF beat Luanda Villa 1-0 in Super League on November 23, 2025.