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MCF vs Kajiado — Super League 2018

MCF
MCF
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kajiado
Kajiado
3/8/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 5Camp Toyoyo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

MCF60%
×Draw22%
Kajiado18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MCF
1.88
Kajiado
0.90

MCF creates 109% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 35 away

creates per match

MCF
1.26
Kajiado
0.94

allows per match

MCF
0.85
Kajiado
2.51

finishing

MCF+0.00on par
Kajiado+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MCF ↓

Kajiado →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

MCF or draw
82%
MCF or Kajiado
78%
Draw or Kajiado
40%

Winning margin

MCF wins by 2+
35%
Kajiado wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

MCF 1+ goals
85%
MCF 2+ goals
56%
MCF 3+ goals
29%
Kajiado 1+ goals
59%
Kajiado 2+ goals
23%
Kajiado 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

MCF (draw refunded)
77%
Kajiado (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MCF at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.85 · 89 matches

Kajiado away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.51 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MCF attack 1.26 + Kajiado defence 2.51 → ÷2 → 1.88

Kajiado attack 0.94 + MCF defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

MCF scores more
60%
level
22%
Kajiado scores more
18%

MCF at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "MCF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: MCF vs Kajiado

MCF beat Kajiado 3-0 in Super League on March 8, 2023.

The match was played at Camp Toyoyo in Nairobi.