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MCF vs Gusii — Super League 2018

MCF
MCF
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Gusii
Gusii
7/2/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 37Kenyatta Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

MCF54%
×Draw26%
Gusii20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MCF
1.48
Gusii
0.78

MCF creates 90% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 54 away

creates per match

MCF
1.26
Gusii
0.72

allows per match

MCF
0.85
Gusii
1.69

finishing

MCF+0.00on par
Gusii+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MCF ↓

Gusii →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

MCF or draw
80%
MCF or Gusii
74%
Draw or Gusii
46%

Winning margin

MCF wins by 2+
28%
Gusii wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

MCF 1+ goals
77%
MCF 2+ goals
43%
MCF 3+ goals
19%
Gusii 1+ goals
54%
Gusii 2+ goals
18%
Gusii 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

MCF (draw refunded)
73%
Gusii (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MCF at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.85 · 89 matches

Gusii away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.69 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MCF attack 1.26 + Gusii defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.48

Gusii attack 0.72 + MCF defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

MCF scores more
54%
level
26%
Gusii scores more
20%

MCF at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "MCF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: MCF 2–1 Gusii

MCF beat Gusii 2-1 in Super League on July 2, 2023.

The match was played at Kenyatta Stadium in Machakos.