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MCF vs Dandora Love — Super League 2018

MCF
MCF
CANC
00:00
Dandora Love
Dandora Love
3/30/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 10Thika Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

MCF59%
×Draw22%
Dandora Love18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MCF
1.87
Dandora Love
0.93

MCF creates 101% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 15 away

creates per match

MCF
1.26
Dandora Love
1.00

allows per match

MCF
0.85
Dandora Love
2.47

finishing

MCF+0.00on par
Dandora Love+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MCF ↓

Dandora Love →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

MCF or draw
82%
MCF or Dandora Love
78%
Draw or Dandora Love
41%

Winning margin

MCF wins by 2+
35%
Dandora Love wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

MCF 1+ goals
85%
MCF 2+ goals
56%
MCF 3+ goals
29%
Dandora Love 1+ goals
61%
Dandora Love 2+ goals
24%
Dandora Love 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

MCF (draw refunded)
76%
Dandora Love (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MCF at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.85 · 89 matches

Dandora Love away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MCF attack 1.26 + Dandora Love defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.87

Dandora Love attack 1.00 + MCF defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

MCF scores more
59%
level
22%
Dandora Love scores more
18%

MCF at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "MCF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: MCF host Dandora Love

March 30, 2022: MCF take on Dandora Love in Super League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

MCF host Dandora Love at Thika Municipal Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.