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MCF vs Coastal Heroes — Super League 2018

MCF
MCF
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Coastal Heroes
Coastal Heroes
6/11/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 33Kenyatta Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

MCF58%
×Draw24%
Coastal Heroes18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MCF
1.69
Coastal Heroes
0.83

MCF creates 104% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 72 away

creates per match

MCF
1.26
Coastal Heroes
0.81

allows per match

MCF
0.85
Coastal Heroes
2.11

finishing

MCF+0.00on par
Coastal Heroes+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MCF ↓

Coastal Heroes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

MCF or draw
82%
MCF or Coastal Heroes
76%
Draw or Coastal Heroes
42%

Winning margin

MCF wins by 2+
32%
Coastal Heroes wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

MCF 1+ goals
82%
MCF 2+ goals
50%
MCF 3+ goals
24%
Coastal Heroes 1+ goals
56%
Coastal Heroes 2+ goals
20%
Coastal Heroes 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

MCF (draw refunded)
76%
Coastal Heroes (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MCF at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.85 · 89 matches

Coastal Heroes away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.11 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MCF attack 1.26 + Coastal Heroes defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.69

Coastal Heroes attack 0.81 + MCF defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

MCF scores more
58%
level
24%
Coastal Heroes scores more
18%

MCF at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "MCF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: MCF 1–0 Coastal Heroes

MCF beat Coastal Heroes 1-0 in Super League on June 11, 2023.

The match was played at Kenyatta Stadium in Machakos.