MC Oran 0–1 Olympique Medea: Result & Stats

MC Oran

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Olympique Medea

3/5/2022

Ligue 1 · Round 20Stade Ahmed Zabana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

MC Oran54%

×Draw27%

Olympique Medea19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MC OranExpected goals in this matchOlympique Medea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.72

MC Oran

1.44

Olympique Medea

0.72

MC Oran creates 100% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 53 away

1.40

creates per match

0.68

0.75

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

MC Oran

1.40

Olympique Medea

0.68

allows per match

MC Oran

0.75

Olympique Medea

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

MC Oran+0.00on par

Olympique Medea+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MC Oran ↓

Olympique Medea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

MC Oran or draw

81%

MC Oran or Olympique Medea

73%

Draw or Olympique Medea

46%

Winning margin

MC Oran wins by 2+

27%

Olympique Medea wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

MC Oran 1+ goals

76%

MC Oran 2+ goals

42%

MC Oran 3+ goals

18%

Olympique Medea 1+ goals

51%

Olympique Medea 2+ goals

16%

Olympique Medea 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

MC Oran (draw refunded)

74%

Olympique Medea (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MC Oran at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.75 · 123 matches

Olympique Medea away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.47 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MC Oran attack 1.40 + Olympique Medea defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.44

Olympique Medea attack 0.68 + MC Oran defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

MC Oran scores more

54%

level

27%

Olympique Medea scores more

19%

MC Oran at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "MC Oran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff