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MC Oran vs Olympique Akbou — Ligue 1 2018

MC Oran
MC Oran
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Olympique Akbou
Olympique Akbou
4/25/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 24Stade Ahmed Zabana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

MC Oran47%
×Draw29%
Olympique Akbou24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MC Oran
1.26
Olympique Akbou
0.82

MC Oran creates 54% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 30 away

creates per match

MC Oran
1.40
Olympique Akbou
0.90

allows per match

MC Oran
0.75
Olympique Akbou
1.13

finishing

MC Oran+0.00on par
Olympique Akbou+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MC Oran ↓

Olympique Akbou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

MC Oran or draw
76%
MC Oran or Olympique Akbou
71%
Draw or Olympique Akbou
53%

Winning margin

MC Oran wins by 2+
21%
Olympique Akbou wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

MC Oran 1+ goals
72%
MC Oran 2+ goals
36%
MC Oran 3+ goals
13%
Olympique Akbou 1+ goals
56%
Olympique Akbou 2+ goals
20%
Olympique Akbou 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

MC Oran (draw refunded)
66%
Olympique Akbou (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MC Oran at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.75 · 123 matches

Olympique Akbou away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MC Oran attack 1.40 + Olympique Akbou defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.26

Olympique Akbou attack 0.90 + MC Oran defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

MC Oran scores more
47%
level
29%
Olympique Akbou scores more
24%

MC Oran at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "MC Oran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: MC Oran 1–0 Olympique Akbou

MC Oran beat Olympique Akbou 1-0 in Ligue 1 on April 25, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Ahmed Zabana in Oran.