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MC Oran vs JSM Skikda — Ligue 1 2018

MC Oran
MC Oran
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
JSM Skikda
JSM Skikda
8/9/2021Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 35Stade Ahmed Zabana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

MC Oran60%
×Draw26%
JSM Skikda14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MC Oran
1.48
JSM Skikda
0.56

MC Oran creates 164% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 35 away

creates per match

MC Oran
1.40
JSM Skikda
0.37

allows per match

MC Oran
0.75
JSM Skikda
1.57

finishing

MC Oran+0.00on par
JSM Skikda+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MC Oran ↓

JSM Skikda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

MC Oran or draw
86%
MC Oran or JSM Skikda
74%
Draw or JSM Skikda
40%

Winning margin

MC Oran wins by 2+
31%
JSM Skikda wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

MC Oran 1+ goals
77%
MC Oran 2+ goals
43%
MC Oran 3+ goals
19%
JSM Skikda 1+ goals
43%
JSM Skikda 2+ goals
11%
JSM Skikda 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

MC Oran (draw refunded)
81%
JSM Skikda (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MC Oran at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.75 · 123 matches

JSM Skikda away — creates 0.37, concedes 1.57 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MC Oran attack 1.40 + JSM Skikda defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.48

JSM Skikda attack 0.37 + MC Oran defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

MC Oran scores more
60%
level
26%
JSM Skikda scores more
14%

MC Oran at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "MC Oran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: MC Oran 1–0 JSM Skikda

MC Oran beat JSM Skikda 1-0 in Ligue 1 on August 9, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Ahmed Zabana in Oran.