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MC Oran vs Ben Aknoun — Ligue 1 2018

MC Oran
MC Oran
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ben Aknoun
Ben Aknoun
8/21/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 1Stade Olympique d'Oran

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

MC Oran48%
×Draw28%
Ben Aknoun24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MC Oran
1.31
Ben Aknoun
0.84

MC Oran creates 56% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 30 away

creates per match

MC Oran
1.40
Ben Aknoun
0.93

allows per match

MC Oran
0.75
Ben Aknoun
1.23

finishing

MC Oran+0.00on par
Ben Aknoun+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MC Oran ↓

Ben Aknoun →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

MC Oran or draw
76%
MC Oran or Ben Aknoun
72%
Draw or Ben Aknoun
52%

Winning margin

MC Oran wins by 2+
22%
Ben Aknoun wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

MC Oran 1+ goals
73%
MC Oran 2+ goals
38%
MC Oran 3+ goals
14%
Ben Aknoun 1+ goals
57%
Ben Aknoun 2+ goals
21%
Ben Aknoun 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

MC Oran (draw refunded)
67%
Ben Aknoun (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MC Oran at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.75 · 123 matches

Ben Aknoun away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MC Oran attack 1.40 + Ben Aknoun defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.31

Ben Aknoun attack 0.93 + MC Oran defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

MC Oran scores more
48%
level
28%
Ben Aknoun scores more
24%

MC Oran at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "MC Oran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: MC Oran 2–1 Ben Aknoun

MC Oran beat Ben Aknoun 2-1 in Ligue 1 on August 21, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Olympique d'Oran in Bir El Djir.