MC Oran 0–0 AS AIN Mlila: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

MC Oran

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

AS AIN Mlila

3/17/2021

Ligue 1 · Round 18Stade Ahmed Zabana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

MC Oran57%

×Draw25%

AS AIN Mlila18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MC OranExpected goals in this matchAS AIN Mlila

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.77

MC Oran

1.61

AS AIN Mlila

0.77

MC Oran creates 109% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 45 away

1.40

creates per match

0.78

0.75

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

MC Oran

1.40

AS AIN Mlila

0.78

allows per match

MC Oran

0.75

AS AIN Mlila

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

MC Oran+0.00on par

AS AIN Mlila+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MC Oran ↓

AS AIN Mlila →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

MC Oran or draw

82%

MC Oran or AS AIN Mlila

75%

Draw or AS AIN Mlila

43%

Winning margin

MC Oran wins by 2+

31%

AS AIN Mlila wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

MC Oran 1+ goals

80%

MC Oran 2+ goals

48%

MC Oran 3+ goals

22%

AS AIN Mlila 1+ goals

54%

AS AIN Mlila 2+ goals

18%

AS AIN Mlila 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

MC Oran (draw refunded)

76%

AS AIN Mlila (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MC Oran at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.75 · 123 matches

AS AIN Mlila away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.82 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MC Oran attack 1.40 + AS AIN Mlila defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.61

AS AIN Mlila attack 0.78 + MC Oran defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

MC Oran scores more

57%

level

25%

AS AIN Mlila scores more

18%

MC Oran at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "MC Oran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

Y. Guenina← Z. Motrani

61'

M. Belloumi← C. Siam

69'

B. Ouali← M. Dahar

78'

Y. Guertil← S. Fourloul

82'

Y. Guermache← M. Hamia

84'

M. Bentiba← B. Mellel

90+1'

Z. Bencherifa← C. Debbih

MC

AS

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: B. Mecheri

45'▲Y. Guenina←▼Z. Motrani

61'▲M. Belloumi←▼C. Siam

78'▲Y. Guertil←▼S. Fourloul

84'▲M. Bentiba←▼B. Mellel

MC Oran substitutes

GueninaBelloumiGuertilBentiba

Manager: R. Iaïche

69'▲B. Ouali←▼M. Dahar

82'▲Y. Guermache←▼M. Hamia

90+1'▲Z. Bencherifa←▼C. Debbih

AS AIN Mlila substitutes

OualiGuermacheBencherifa