MC Breweries 2–0 Small Town: Result & Stats

MC Breweries

FT

2 – 0

Small Town

4/11/2021

LFA First Division · Round 17TUSA Sport Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

MC Breweries55%

×Draw21%

Small Town24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MC BreweriesExpected goals in this matchSmall Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

1.34

MC Breweries

2.12

Small Town

1.34

MC Breweries creates 58% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 11 away

1.23

creates per match

1.09

1.59

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

MC Breweries

1.23

Small Town

1.09

allows per match

MC Breweries

1.59

Small Town

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

MC Breweries+0.00on par

Small Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MC Breweries ↓

Small Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

MC Breweries or draw

76%

MC Breweries or Small Town

79%

Draw or Small Town

45%

Winning margin

MC Breweries wins by 2+

33%

Small Town wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

MC Breweries 1+ goals

88%

MC Breweries 2+ goals

62%

MC Breweries 3+ goals

35%

Small Town 1+ goals

74%

Small Town 2+ goals

39%

Small Town 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

MC Breweries (draw refunded)

70%

Small Town (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MC Breweries at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.59 · 22 matches

Small Town away — creates 1.09, concedes 3.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MC Breweries attack 1.23 + Small Town defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.12

Small Town attack 1.09 + MC Breweries defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

MC Breweries scores more

55%

level

21%

Small Town scores more

24%

MC Breweries at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "MC Breweries will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff