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MC Breweries vs NPA Anchors — LFA First Division 2020

MC Breweries
MC Breweries
FT
1 – 2
NPA Anchors
NPA Anchors
3/7/2021LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 12Antoinette Tubman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

MC Breweries49%
×Draw24%
NPA Anchors27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MC Breweries
1.72
NPA Anchors
1.21

MC Breweries creates 42% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 24 away

creates per match

MC Breweries
1.23
NPA Anchors
0.83

allows per match

MC Breweries
1.59
NPA Anchors
2.21

finishing

MC Breweries+0.00on par
NPA Anchors+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MC Breweries ↓

NPA Anchors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

MC Breweries or draw
73%
MC Breweries or NPA Anchors
76%
Draw or NPA Anchors
51%

Winning margin

MC Breweries wins by 2+
27%
NPA Anchors wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

MC Breweries 1+ goals
82%
MC Breweries 2+ goals
51%
MC Breweries 3+ goals
25%
NPA Anchors 1+ goals
70%
NPA Anchors 2+ goals
34%
NPA Anchors 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

MC Breweries (draw refunded)
65%
NPA Anchors (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MC Breweries at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.59 · 22 matches

NPA Anchors away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.21 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MC Breweries attack 1.23 + NPA Anchors defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.72

NPA Anchors attack 0.83 + MC Breweries defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

MC Breweries scores more
49%
level
24%
NPA Anchors scores more
27%

MC Breweries at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "MC Breweries will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: MC Breweries vs NPA Anchors

NPA Anchors beat MC Breweries 2-1 in LFA First Division on March 7, 2021.

The match was played at Antoinette Tubman Stadium in Monrovia.