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MC Breweries vs Mighty Barrolle — LFA First Division 2020

MC Breweries
MC Breweries
FT
3 – 0
Mighty Barrolle
Mighty Barrolle
11/7/2021LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 2Antoinette Tubman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

MC Breweries33%
×Draw25%
Mighty Barrolle42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MC Breweries
1.32
Mighty Barrolle
1.54

Mighty Barrolle creates 17% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 61 away

creates per match

MC Breweries
1.23
Mighty Barrolle
1.48

allows per match

MC Breweries
1.59
Mighty Barrolle
1.41

finishing

MC Breweries+0.00on par
Mighty Barrolle+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MC Breweries ↓

Mighty Barrolle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

MC Breweries or draw
58%
MC Breweries or Mighty Barrolle
75%
Draw or Mighty Barrolle
67%

Winning margin

MC Breweries wins by 2+
14%
Mighty Barrolle wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

MC Breweries 1+ goals
73%
MC Breweries 2+ goals
38%
MC Breweries 3+ goals
15%
Mighty Barrolle 1+ goals
79%
Mighty Barrolle 2+ goals
45%
Mighty Barrolle 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

MC Breweries (draw refunded)
43%
Mighty Barrolle (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MC Breweries at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.59 · 22 matches

Mighty Barrolle away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.41 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MC Breweries attack 1.23 + Mighty Barrolle defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.32

Mighty Barrolle attack 1.48 + MC Breweries defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

MC Breweries scores more
33%
level
25%
Mighty Barrolle scores more
42%

Mighty Barrolle at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Mighty Barrolle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

LFA First Division: MC Breweries 3–0 Mighty Barrolle

MC Breweries beat Mighty Barrolle 3-0 in LFA First Division on November 7, 2021.

The match was played at Antoinette Tubman Stadium in Monrovia.