MC Breweries 0–6 LPRC Oilers: Result & Stats

MC Breweries

FT

0 – 6

LPRC Oilers

3/27/2022

LFA First Division · Round 19Samuel Kanyon Doe Practice Pitch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

MC Breweries29%

×Draw25%

LPRC Oilers46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MC BreweriesExpected goals in this matchLPRC Oilers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.60

MC Breweries

1.23

LPRC Oilers

1.60

LPRC Oilers creates 30% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 75 away

1.23

creates per match

1.60

1.59

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

MC Breweries

1.23

LPRC Oilers

1.60

allows per match

MC Breweries

1.59

LPRC Oilers

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

MC Breweries+0.00on par

LPRC Oilers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MC Breweries ↓

LPRC Oilers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

MC Breweries or draw

54%

MC Breweries or LPRC Oilers

75%

Draw or LPRC Oilers

71%

Winning margin

MC Breweries wins by 2+

12%

LPRC Oilers wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

MC Breweries 1+ goals

71%

MC Breweries 2+ goals

35%

MC Breweries 3+ goals

13%

LPRC Oilers 1+ goals

80%

LPRC Oilers 2+ goals

47%

LPRC Oilers 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

MC Breweries (draw refunded)

39%

LPRC Oilers (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MC Breweries at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.59 · 22 matches

LPRC Oilers away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.24 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MC Breweries attack 1.23 + LPRC Oilers defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.23

LPRC Oilers attack 1.60 + MC Breweries defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

MC Breweries scores more

29%

level

25%

LPRC Oilers scores more

46%

LPRC Oilers at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "LPRC Oilers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff