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MC Breweries vs LISCR — LFA First Division 2020

MC Breweries
MC Breweries
FT
2 – 1
LISCR
LISCR
1/6/2022LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 9Antoinette Tubman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

MC Breweries29%
×Draw25%
LISCR46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MC Breweries
1.21
LISCR
1.60

LISCR creates 32% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 73 away

creates per match

MC Breweries
1.23
LISCR
1.62

allows per match

MC Breweries
1.59
LISCR
1.18

finishing

MC Breweries+0.00on par
LISCR+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MC Breweries ↓

LISCR →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

MC Breweries or draw
54%
MC Breweries or LISCR
75%
Draw or LISCR
71%

Winning margin

MC Breweries wins by 2+
12%
LISCR wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

MC Breweries 1+ goals
70%
MC Breweries 2+ goals
34%
MC Breweries 3+ goals
12%
LISCR 1+ goals
80%
LISCR 2+ goals
47%
LISCR 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

MC Breweries (draw refunded)
38%
LISCR (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MC Breweries at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.59 · 22 matches

LISCR away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.18 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MC Breweries attack 1.23 + LISCR defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.21

LISCR attack 1.62 + MC Breweries defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

MC Breweries scores more
29%
level
25%
LISCR scores more
46%

LISCR at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "LISCR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: MC Breweries vs LISCR

MC Breweries beat LISCR 2-1 in LFA First Division on January 6, 2022.

The match was played at Antoinette Tubman Stadium in Monrovia.