MC Breweries 1–0 Invincible Eleven: Result & Stats

MC Breweries

FT

1 – 0

Invincible Eleven

12/12/2021

LFA First Division · Round 7TUSA Sport Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

MC Breweries43%

×Draw25%

Invincible Eleven32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MC BreweriesExpected goals in this matchInvincible Eleven

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.25

MC Breweries

1.50

Invincible Eleven

1.25

MC Breweries creates 20% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 51 away

1.23

creates per match

0.90

1.59

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

MC Breweries

1.23

Invincible Eleven

0.90

allows per match

MC Breweries

1.59

Invincible Eleven

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

MC Breweries+0.00on par

Invincible Eleven+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MC Breweries ↓

Invincible Eleven →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

MC Breweries or draw

68%

MC Breweries or Invincible Eleven

75%

Draw or Invincible Eleven

57%

Winning margin

MC Breweries wins by 2+

21%

Invincible Eleven wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

MC Breweries 1+ goals

78%

MC Breweries 2+ goals

44%

MC Breweries 3+ goals

19%

Invincible Eleven 1+ goals

71%

Invincible Eleven 2+ goals

36%

Invincible Eleven 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

MC Breweries (draw refunded)

58%

Invincible Eleven (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MC Breweries at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.59 · 22 matches

Invincible Eleven away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.76 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MC Breweries attack 1.23 + Invincible Eleven defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.50

Invincible Eleven attack 0.90 + MC Breweries defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

MC Breweries scores more

43%

level

25%

Invincible Eleven scores more

32%

MC Breweries at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "MC Breweries will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff