MC Breweries 2–1 Heaven Eleven: Result & Stats

MC Breweries

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Heaven Eleven

3/13/2022

LFA First Division · Round 17TUSA Sport Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

MC Breweries33%

×Draw25%

Heaven Eleven42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MC BreweriesExpected goals in this matchHeaven Eleven

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.57

MC Breweries

1.36

Heaven Eleven

1.57

Heaven Eleven creates 15% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 60 away

1.23

creates per match

1.55

1.59

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

MC Breweries

1.23

Heaven Eleven

1.55

allows per match

MC Breweries

1.59

Heaven Eleven

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

MC Breweries+0.00on par

Heaven Eleven+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MC Breweries ↓

Heaven Eleven →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

MC Breweries or draw

58%

MC Breweries or Heaven Eleven

75%

Draw or Heaven Eleven

67%

Winning margin

MC Breweries wins by 2+

15%

Heaven Eleven wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

MC Breweries 1+ goals

74%

MC Breweries 2+ goals

39%

MC Breweries 3+ goals

16%

Heaven Eleven 1+ goals

79%

Heaven Eleven 2+ goals

46%

Heaven Eleven 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

MC Breweries (draw refunded)

44%

Heaven Eleven (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MC Breweries at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.59 · 22 matches

Heaven Eleven away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.50 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MC Breweries attack 1.23 + Heaven Eleven defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.36

Heaven Eleven attack 1.55 + MC Breweries defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

MC Breweries scores more

33%

level

25%

Heaven Eleven scores more

42%

Heaven Eleven at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Heaven Eleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff