MC Alger 4–1 Tadjenant: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

MC Alger

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Tadjenant

1/11/2019

Ligue 1 · Round 17Stade 5 Juillet 1962 (Hadjout)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

MC Alger62%

×Draw22%

Tadjenant16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MC AlgerExpected goals in this matchTadjenant

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

0.82

MC Alger

1.88

Tadjenant

0.82

MC Alger creates 129% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 15 away

1.70

creates per match

0.87

0.77

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

MC Alger

1.70

Tadjenant

0.87

allows per match

MC Alger

0.77

Tadjenant

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

MC Alger+0.00on par

Tadjenant+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MC Alger ↓

Tadjenant →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

MC Alger or draw

84%

MC Alger or Tadjenant

78%

Draw or Tadjenant

38%

Winning margin

MC Alger wins by 2+

37%

Tadjenant wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

MC Alger 1+ goals

85%

MC Alger 2+ goals

56%

MC Alger 3+ goals

29%

Tadjenant 1+ goals

56%

Tadjenant 2+ goals

20%

Tadjenant 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

MC Alger (draw refunded)

80%

Tadjenant (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MC Alger at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.77 · 121 matches

Tadjenant away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MC Alger attack 1.70 + Tadjenant defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.88

Tadjenant attack 0.87 + MC Alger defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

MC Alger scores more

62%

level

22%

Tadjenant scores more

16%

MC Alger at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "MC Alger will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff