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MC Alger vs NC Magra — Ligue 1 2018

MC Alger
MC Alger
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
NC Magra
NC Magra
12/1/2023Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 8Stade du 5 Juillet 1962

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

MC Alger58%
×Draw25%
NC Magra17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MC Alger
1.60
NC Magra
0.73

MC Alger creates 119% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 92 away

creates per match

MC Alger
1.70
NC Magra
0.68

allows per match

MC Alger
0.77
NC Magra
1.50

finishing

MC Alger+0.00on par
NC Magra+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MC Alger ↓

NC Magra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

MC Alger or draw
83%
MC Alger or NC Magra
75%
Draw or NC Magra
42%

Winning margin

MC Alger wins by 2+
32%
NC Magra wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

MC Alger 1+ goals
80%
MC Alger 2+ goals
47%
MC Alger 3+ goals
22%
NC Magra 1+ goals
52%
NC Magra 2+ goals
17%
NC Magra 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

MC Alger (draw refunded)
77%
NC Magra (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MC Alger at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.77 · 121 matches

NC Magra away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.50 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MC Alger attack 1.70 + NC Magra defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.60

NC Magra attack 0.68 + MC Alger defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

MC Alger scores more
58%
level
25%
NC Magra scores more
17%

MC Alger at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "MC Alger will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: MC Alger 4–0 NC Magra

MC Alger beat NC Magra 4-0 in Ligue 1 on December 1, 2023.

The match was played at Stade du 5 Juillet 1962 in Algiers.