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MC Alger vs Mamelodi Sundowns — CAF Champions League 2019

MC Alger
MC Alger
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mamelodi Sundowns
Mamelodi Sundowns
11/28/2025CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Round 2Ali La Pointe Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

MC Alger37%
×Draw29%
Mamelodi Sundowns34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MC Alger
1.12
Mamelodi Sundowns
1.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 41 away

creates per match

MC Alger
1.41
Mamelodi Sundowns
1.63

allows per match

MC Alger
0.47
Mamelodi Sundowns
0.83

finishing

MC Alger+0.00on par
Mamelodi Sundowns+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MC Alger ↓

Mamelodi Sundowns →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

MC Alger or draw
66%
MC Alger or Mamelodi Sundowns
71%
Draw or Mamelodi Sundowns
63%

Winning margin

MC Alger wins by 2+
15%
Mamelodi Sundowns wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

MC Alger 1+ goals
67%
MC Alger 2+ goals
31%
MC Alger 3+ goals
10%
Mamelodi Sundowns 1+ goals
65%
Mamelodi Sundowns 2+ goals
28%
Mamelodi Sundowns 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

MC Alger (draw refunded)
53%
Mamelodi Sundowns (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MC Alger at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.47 · 17 matches

Mamelodi Sundowns away — creates 1.63, concedes 0.83 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MC Alger attack 1.41 + Mamelodi Sundowns defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.12

Mamelodi Sundowns attack 1.63 + MC Alger defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

MC Alger scores more
37%
level
29%
Mamelodi Sundowns scores more
34%

MC Alger at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "MC Alger will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
M. AllendeMamelodi SundownsMamelodi Sundowns · M
7.6

Match Events

14'
Miguel Reisinho
31'
Keanu Cupido
59'
S. Bayazid← A. Bangoura
77'
K. Zunon← Z. Naidji
77'
A. Messoussa← Z. Ferhat
78'
Oussama Benhaoua
84'
A. Modiba← D. Lunga
84'
Arthur Sales← T. Matthews
86'
M. Zougrana← O. Benhaoua
86'
M. Bangoura← M. Benkhemassa
88'
T. Zwane← M. Reisinho
90+4'
K. Johannes← K. Cupido
90+3'
T. Maseko← I. Rayners

Possession

34%MC

Shots

8MC

Pass accuracy

45%MC

Statistics

MCMamelodi
Overview
34%Possession66%
8Total Shots4
5Corners1
9Fouls21
Shots
8Total Shots4
2On Target0
1Off Target2
5Blocked2
4Inside Box3
4Outside Box1
Passing
34%Possession66%
265Total Passes540
198Accurate Passes486
75%Pass Accuracy90%
Goalkeeping
0Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls21
1Yellow Cards2
6Offsides2

CAF Champions League: MC Alger 0–0 Mamelodi Sundowns

MC Alger and Mamelodi Sundowns drew 0-0 in CAF Champions League on November 28, 2025.

Mamelodi Sundowns controlled possession (66%) and registered 4 shots to 8.

The match was played at Ali La Pointe Stadium in Douera.