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MC Alger vs JS Saoura — Ligue 1 2018

MC Alger
MC Alger
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
JS Saoura
JS Saoura
11/3/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

MC Alger52%
×Draw27%
JS Saoura21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MC Alger
1.44
JS Saoura
0.80

MC Alger creates 80% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 108 away

creates per match

MC Alger
1.70
JS Saoura
0.84

allows per match

MC Alger
0.77
JS Saoura
1.19

finishing

MC Alger+0.00on par
JS Saoura+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MC Alger ↓

JS Saoura →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

MC Alger or draw
79%
MC Alger or JS Saoura
73%
Draw or JS Saoura
48%

Winning margin

MC Alger wins by 2+
26%
JS Saoura wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

MC Alger 1+ goals
76%
MC Alger 2+ goals
42%
MC Alger 3+ goals
18%
JS Saoura 1+ goals
55%
JS Saoura 2+ goals
19%
JS Saoura 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

MC Alger (draw refunded)
71%
JS Saoura (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MC Alger at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.77 · 121 matches

JS Saoura away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.19 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MC Alger attack 1.70 + JS Saoura defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.44

JS Saoura attack 0.84 + MC Alger defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

MC Alger scores more
52%
level
27%
JS Saoura scores more
21%

MC Alger at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "MC Alger will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: MC Alger vs JS Saoura

MC Alger beat JS Saoura 1-0 in Ligue 1 on November 3, 2025.