MC Alger 6–3 ASO Chlef: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

MC Alger

FT

6 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

ASO Chlef

3/14/2024

Ligue 1 · Round 20Stade du 5 Juillet 1962

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

MC Alger54%

×Draw26%

ASO Chlef20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MC AlgerExpected goals in this matchASO Chlef

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

0.84

MC Alger

1.55

ASO Chlef

0.84

MC Alger creates 85% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 106 away

1.70

creates per match

0.92

0.77

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

MC Alger

1.70

ASO Chlef

0.92

allows per match

MC Alger

0.77

ASO Chlef

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

MC Alger+0.00on par

ASO Chlef+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MC Alger ↓

ASO Chlef →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

MC Alger or draw

80%

MC Alger or ASO Chlef

74%

Draw or ASO Chlef

46%

Winning margin

MC Alger wins by 2+

28%

ASO Chlef wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

MC Alger 1+ goals

79%

MC Alger 2+ goals

46%

MC Alger 3+ goals

20%

ASO Chlef 1+ goals

57%

ASO Chlef 2+ goals

21%

ASO Chlef 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

MC Alger (draw refunded)

73%

ASO Chlef (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MC Alger at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.77 · 121 matches

ASO Chlef away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.40 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MC Alger attack 1.70 + ASO Chlef defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.55

ASO Chlef attack 0.92 + MC Alger defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

MC Alger scores more

54%

level

26%

ASO Chlef scores more

20%

MC Alger at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "MC Alger will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff