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Mbour Petite Côte vs Niarry Tally — Ligue 1 2019

Mbour Petite Côte
Mbour Petite Côte
FT
0 – 0
Niarry Tally
Niarry Tally
3/28/2021Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 12Stade Lamine Guèye

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Mbour Petite Côte40%
×Draw29%
Niarry Tally30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mbour Petite Côte
1.19
Niarry Tally
0.99

Mbour Petite Côte creates 20% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 20 away

creates per match

Mbour Petite Côte
0.94
Niarry Tally
0.80

allows per match

Mbour Petite Côte
1.19
Niarry Tally
1.45

finishing

Mbour Petite Côte+0.00on par
Niarry Tally+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mbour Petite Côte ↓

Niarry Tally →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Mbour Petite Côte or draw
70%
Mbour Petite Côte or Niarry Tally
71%
Draw or Niarry Tally
60%

Winning margin

Mbour Petite Côte wins by 2+
17%
Niarry Tally wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Mbour Petite Côte 1+ goals
70%
Mbour Petite Côte 2+ goals
33%
Mbour Petite Côte 3+ goals
12%
Niarry Tally 1+ goals
63%
Niarry Tally 2+ goals
26%
Niarry Tally 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Mbour Petite Côte (draw refunded)
57%
Niarry Tally (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mbour Petite Côte at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.19 · 32 matches

Niarry Tally away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.45 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mbour Petite Côte attack 0.94 + Niarry Tally defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.19

Niarry Tally attack 0.80 + Mbour Petite Côte defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Mbour Petite Côte scores more
40%
level
29%
Niarry Tally scores more
30%

Mbour Petite Côte at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Mbour Petite Côte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mbour Petite Côte vs Niarry Tally

Mbour Petite Côte and Niarry Tally drew 0-0 in Ligue 1 on March 28, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Lamine Guèye in Kaolack.