Mbour Petite Côte 3–1 CNEPS Excellence

Mbour Petite Côte

FT

3 – 1

CNEPS Excellence

7/11/2021

Ligue 1 · Round 24Stade Lamine Guèye

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Mbour Petite Côte44%

×Draw29%

CNEPS Excellence27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mbour Petite CôteExpected goals in this matchCNEPS Excellence

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.88

Mbour Petite Côte

1.21

CNEPS Excellence

0.88

Mbour Petite Côte creates 38% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 45 away

0.94

creates per match

0.56

1.19

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Mbour Petite Côte

0.94

CNEPS Excellence

0.56

allows per match

Mbour Petite Côte

1.19

CNEPS Excellence

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mbour Petite Côte+0.00on par

CNEPS Excellence+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mbour Petite Côte ↓

CNEPS Excellence →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Mbour Petite Côte or draw

73%

Mbour Petite Côte or CNEPS Excellence

71%

Draw or CNEPS Excellence

56%

Winning margin

Mbour Petite Côte wins by 2+

19%

CNEPS Excellence wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Mbour Petite Côte 1+ goals

70%

Mbour Petite Côte 2+ goals

34%

Mbour Petite Côte 3+ goals

12%

CNEPS Excellence 1+ goals

59%

CNEPS Excellence 2+ goals

22%

CNEPS Excellence 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Mbour Petite Côte (draw refunded)

62%

CNEPS Excellence (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mbour Petite Côte at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.19 · 32 matches

CNEPS Excellence away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.49 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mbour Petite Côte attack 0.94 + CNEPS Excellence defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.21

CNEPS Excellence attack 0.56 + Mbour Petite Côte defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Mbour Petite Côte scores more

44%

level

29%

CNEPS Excellence scores more

27%

Mbour Petite Côte at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mbour Petite Côte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff