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Mbeya City vs Young Africans — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Mbeya City
Mbeya City
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Young Africans
Young Africans
J. Ssemujju 49' (pen)
H. Makambo 40'
6/25/2022Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 29Sokoine Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Mbeya City20%
×Draw26%
Young Africans54%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mbeya City
0.82
Young Africans
1.53

Young Africans creates 87% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 35 away

creates per match

Mbeya City
1.15
Young Africans
1.94

allows per match

Mbeya City
1.12
Young Africans
0.49

finishing

Mbeya City+0.00on par
Young Africans+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mbeya City ↓

Young Africans →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–115%
0–211%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Mbeya City or draw
46%
Mbeya City or Young Africans
74%
Draw or Young Africans
80%

Winning margin

Mbeya City wins by 2+
6%
Young Africans wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Mbeya City 1+ goals
56%
Mbeya City 2+ goals
20%
Mbeya City 3+ goals
5%
Young Africans 1+ goals
78%
Young Africans 2+ goals
45%
Young Africans 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Mbeya City (draw refunded)
27%
Young Africans (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mbeya City at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.12 · 33 matches

Young Africans away — creates 1.94, concedes 0.49 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mbeya City attack 1.15 + Young Africans defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.82

Young Africans attack 1.94 + Mbeya City defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Mbeya City scores more
20%
level
26%
Young Africans scores more
54%

Young Africans at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Young Africans will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'
H. Makambo
44'
M. Mwanikyuke
49'
J. SsemujjuPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mbeya City 1 – 1 Young Africans

Mbeya City and Young Africans drew 1-1 in Ligi kuu Bara on June 25, 2022.

Goals: H. Makambo (40'), J. Ssemujju (49' pen).

The match was played at Sokoine Stadium in Mbeya.