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Mbeya City vs Namungo — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Mbeya City
Mbeya City
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Namungo
Namungo
H. Muhamud 55'
S. Sabilo 25'
R. Lusajo 62'
11/4/2022Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 11Sokoine Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Mbeya City38%
×Draw30%
Namungo32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mbeya City
1.10
Namungo
0.97

Mbeya City creates 13% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 26 away

creates per match

Mbeya City
0.86
Namungo
0.81

allows per match

Mbeya City
1.14
Namungo
1.35

finishing

Mbeya City+0.00on par
Namungo+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mbeya City ↓

Namungo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Mbeya City or draw
68%
Mbeya City or Namungo
70%
Draw or Namungo
62%

Winning margin

Mbeya City wins by 2+
16%
Namungo wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Mbeya City 1+ goals
67%
Mbeya City 2+ goals
30%
Mbeya City 3+ goals
10%
Namungo 1+ goals
62%
Namungo 2+ goals
25%
Namungo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Mbeya City (draw refunded)
55%
Namungo (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mbeya City at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.14 · 21 matches

Namungo away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.35 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mbeya City attack 0.86 + Namungo defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.10

Namungo attack 0.81 + Mbeya City defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Mbeya City scores more
38%
level
30%
Namungo scores more
32%

Mbeya City at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Mbeya City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
S. Sabilo
55'
H. Muhamud
62'
R. Lusajo↳ S. Kichuya

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mbeya City 2 – 1 Namungo

Mbeya City beat Namungo 2-1 in Ligi kuu Bara on November 4, 2022.

Goals: S. Sabilo (25'), H. Muhamud (55'), R. Lusajo (62').

The match was played at Sokoine Stadium in Mbeya.