Mbeya City 0–1 Coastal Union: Result & Stats

Mbeya City

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Coastal Union

V. Abubakar 50'

5/24/2022

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 25Sokoine Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Mbeya City39%

×Draw30%

Coastal Union31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mbeya CityExpected goals in this matchCoastal Union

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.98

Mbeya City

1.13

Coastal Union

0.98

Mbeya City creates 15% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 35 away

0.97

creates per match

0.80

1.16

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Mbeya City

0.97

Coastal Union

0.80

allows per match

Mbeya City

1.16

Coastal Union

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mbeya City+0.00on par

Coastal Union+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mbeya City ↓

Coastal Union →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Mbeya City or draw

69%

Mbeya City or Coastal Union

70%

Draw or Coastal Union

61%

Winning margin

Mbeya City wins by 2+

16%

Coastal Union wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Mbeya City 1+ goals

68%

Mbeya City 2+ goals

31%

Mbeya City 3+ goals

11%

Coastal Union 1+ goals

62%

Coastal Union 2+ goals

26%

Coastal Union 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Mbeya City (draw refunded)

55%

Coastal Union (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mbeya City at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.16 · 31 matches

Coastal Union away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.29 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mbeya City attack 0.97 + Coastal Union defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.13

Coastal Union attack 0.80 + Mbeya City defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Mbeya City scores more

39%

level

30%

Coastal Union scores more

31%

Mbeya City at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Mbeya City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

50'

V. Abubakar

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff