Mbarara City 0–0 Wakiso Giants: Result & Stats

Mbarara City

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Wakiso Giants

12/30/2024

Premier League · Round 13Kakyeka Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Mbarara City46%

×Draw30%

Wakiso Giants24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mbarara CityExpected goals in this matchWakiso Giants

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

0.79

Mbarara City

1.22

Wakiso Giants

0.79

Mbarara City creates 54% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 84 away

1.08

creates per match

0.76

0.81

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Mbarara City

1.08

Wakiso Giants

0.76

allows per match

Mbarara City

0.81

Wakiso Giants

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mbarara City+0.00on par

Wakiso Giants+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mbarara City ↓

Wakiso Giants →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Mbarara City or draw

76%

Mbarara City or Wakiso Giants

70%

Draw or Wakiso Giants

54%

Winning margin

Mbarara City wins by 2+

21%

Wakiso Giants wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Mbarara City 1+ goals

70%

Mbarara City 2+ goals

34%

Mbarara City 3+ goals

12%

Wakiso Giants 1+ goals

55%

Wakiso Giants 2+ goals

19%

Wakiso Giants 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Mbarara City (draw refunded)

66%

Wakiso Giants (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mbarara City at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.81 · 85 matches

Wakiso Giants away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.35 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mbarara City attack 1.08 + Wakiso Giants defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.22

Wakiso Giants attack 0.76 + Mbarara City defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mbarara City scores more

46%

level

30%

Wakiso Giants scores more

24%

Mbarara City at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mbarara City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff