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Mbarara City vs Vipers — Premier League 2019

Mbarara City
Mbarara City
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Vipers
Vipers
3/7/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 19Rwamwanja stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Mbarara City28%
×Draw30%
Vipers42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mbarara City
0.89
Vipers
1.15

Vipers creates 29% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 98 away

creates per match

Mbarara City
1.08
Vipers
1.49

allows per match

Mbarara City
0.81
Vipers
0.70

finishing

Mbarara City+0.00on par
Vipers+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mbarara City ↓

Vipers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–115%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Mbarara City or draw
58%
Mbarara City or Vipers
70%
Draw or Vipers
72%

Winning margin

Mbarara City wins by 2+
10%
Vipers wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Mbarara City 1+ goals
59%
Mbarara City 2+ goals
22%
Mbarara City 3+ goals
6%
Vipers 1+ goals
68%
Vipers 2+ goals
32%
Vipers 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Mbarara City (draw refunded)
40%
Vipers (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mbarara City at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.81 · 85 matches

Vipers away — creates 1.49, concedes 0.70 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mbarara City attack 1.08 + Vipers defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.89

Vipers attack 1.49 + Mbarara City defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Mbarara City scores more
28%
level
30%
Vipers scores more
42%

Vipers at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Vipers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Mbarara City 1–2 Vipers

Vipers beat Mbarara City 2-1 in Premier League on March 7, 2026.

The match was played at Rwamwanja stadium.