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Mbarara City vs Onduparaka — Premier League 2019

Mbarara City
Mbarara City
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Onduparaka
Onduparaka
12/11/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 10Kakyeka Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Mbarara City48%
×Draw28%
Onduparaka24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mbarara City
1.36
Onduparaka
0.87

Mbarara City creates 56% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 55 away

creates per match

Mbarara City
1.08
Onduparaka
0.93

allows per match

Mbarara City
0.81
Onduparaka
1.64

finishing

Mbarara City+0.00on par
Onduparaka+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mbarara City ↓

Onduparaka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Mbarara City or draw
76%
Mbarara City or Onduparaka
72%
Draw or Onduparaka
52%

Winning margin

Mbarara City wins by 2+
23%
Onduparaka wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Mbarara City 1+ goals
74%
Mbarara City 2+ goals
39%
Mbarara City 3+ goals
16%
Onduparaka 1+ goals
58%
Onduparaka 2+ goals
22%
Onduparaka 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Mbarara City (draw refunded)
67%
Onduparaka (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mbarara City at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.81 · 85 matches

Onduparaka away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.64 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mbarara City attack 1.08 + Onduparaka defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.36

Onduparaka attack 0.93 + Mbarara City defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Mbarara City scores more
48%
level
28%
Onduparaka scores more
24%

Mbarara City at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Mbarara City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mbarara City vs Onduparaka

Mbarara City beat Onduparaka 3-2 in Premier League on December 11, 2021.

The match was played at Kakyeka Stadium in Mbarara.