Mbarara City 1–0 Mbale Heroes: Result & Stats

Mbarara City

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mbale Heroes

11/23/2024

Premier League · Round 9Kakyeka Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Mbarara City67%

×Draw21%

Mbale Heroes12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mbarara CityExpected goals in this matchMbale Heroes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

0.67

Mbarara City

1.94

Mbale Heroes

0.67

Mbarara City creates 190% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 15 away

1.08

creates per match

0.53

0.81

allows per match

2.80

creates per match

Mbarara City

1.08

Mbale Heroes

0.53

allows per match

Mbarara City

0.81

Mbale Heroes

2.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mbarara City+0.00on par

Mbale Heroes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mbarara City ↓

Mbale Heroes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Mbarara City or draw

88%

Mbarara City or Mbale Heroes

79%

Draw or Mbale Heroes

33%

Winning margin

Mbarara City wins by 2+

42%

Mbale Heroes wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Mbarara City 1+ goals

86%

Mbarara City 2+ goals

58%

Mbarara City 3+ goals

30%

Mbale Heroes 1+ goals

49%

Mbale Heroes 2+ goals

15%

Mbale Heroes 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Mbarara City (draw refunded)

85%

Mbale Heroes (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mbarara City at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.81 · 85 matches

Mbale Heroes away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mbarara City attack 1.08 + Mbale Heroes defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 1.94

Mbale Heroes attack 0.53 + Mbarara City defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Mbarara City scores more

67%

level

21%

Mbale Heroes scores more

12%

Mbarara City at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Mbarara City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff