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Mbarara City vs Kitara — Premier League 2019

Mbarara City
Mbarara City
CANC
12:00
Kitara
Kitara
6/30/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 30Kakyeka Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Mbarara City43%
×Draw29%
Kitara29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mbarara City
1.24
Kitara
0.96

Mbarara City creates 29% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 57 away

creates per match

Mbarara City
1.08
Kitara
1.11

allows per match

Mbarara City
0.81
Kitara
1.40

finishing

Mbarara City+0.00on par
Kitara+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mbarara City ↓

Kitara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Mbarara City or draw
71%
Mbarara City or Kitara
71%
Draw or Kitara
57%

Winning margin

Mbarara City wins by 2+
19%
Kitara wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Mbarara City 1+ goals
71%
Mbarara City 2+ goals
35%
Mbarara City 3+ goals
13%
Kitara 1+ goals
62%
Kitara 2+ goals
25%
Kitara 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Mbarara City (draw refunded)
60%
Kitara (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mbarara City at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.81 · 85 matches

Kitara away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.40 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mbarara City attack 1.08 + Kitara defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.24

Kitara attack 1.11 + Mbarara City defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Mbarara City scores more
43%
level
29%
Kitara scores more
29%

Mbarara City at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Mbarara City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Mbarara City host Kitara

June 30, 2021: Mbarara City take on Kitara in Premier League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Mbarara City host Kitara at Kakyeka Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.