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Kitara vs Mbarara City — Premier League 2019

Kitara
Kitara
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Mbarara City
Mbarara City
3/14/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 20The Royals Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Kitara55%
×Draw24%
Mbarara City21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kitara
1.69
Mbarara City
0.93

Kitara creates 82% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 86 away

creates per match

Kitara
1.78
Mbarara City
0.72

allows per match

Kitara
1.14
Mbarara City
1.60

finishing

Kitara+0.00on par
Mbarara City+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kitara ↓

Mbarara City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Kitara or draw
79%
Kitara or Mbarara City
76%
Draw or Mbarara City
45%

Winning margin

Kitara wins by 2+
30%
Mbarara City wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kitara 1+ goals
82%
Kitara 2+ goals
50%
Kitara 3+ goals
24%
Mbarara City 1+ goals
61%
Mbarara City 2+ goals
24%
Mbarara City 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Kitara (draw refunded)
73%
Mbarara City (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kitara at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.14 · 58 matches

Mbarara City away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.60 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kitara attack 1.78 + Mbarara City defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.69

Mbarara City attack 0.72 + Kitara defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Kitara scores more
55%
level
24%
Mbarara City scores more
21%

Kitara at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Kitara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kitara vs Mbarara City

Kitara and Mbarara City drew 1-1 in Premier League on March 14, 2025.

The match was played at The Royals Park in Butema.