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Mbale Heroes vs Lugazi — Premier League 2019

Mbale Heroes
Mbale Heroes
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Lugazi
Lugazi
3/13/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 20Mbale Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Mbale Heroes26%
×Draw32%
Lugazi42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mbale Heroes
0.78
Lugazi
1.06

Lugazi creates 36% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

creates per match

Mbale Heroes
0.33
Lugazi
0.33

allows per match

Mbale Heroes
1.80
Lugazi
1.23

finishing

Mbale Heroes+0.00on par
Lugazi+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mbale Heroes ↓

Lugazi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–117%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Mbale Heroes or draw
58%
Mbale Heroes or Lugazi
68%
Draw or Lugazi
74%

Winning margin

Mbale Heroes wins by 2+
8%
Lugazi wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Mbale Heroes 1+ goals
54%
Mbale Heroes 2+ goals
18%
Mbale Heroes 3+ goals
4%
Lugazi 1+ goals
65%
Lugazi 2+ goals
29%
Lugazi 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Mbale Heroes (draw refunded)
39%
Lugazi (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mbale Heroes at home — creates 0.33, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

Lugazi away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mbale Heroes attack 0.33 + Lugazi defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.78

Lugazi attack 0.33 + Mbale Heroes defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Mbale Heroes scores more
26%
level
32%
Lugazi scores more
42%

Lugazi at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Lugazi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Mbale Heroes 1–3 Lugazi

Lugazi beat Mbale Heroes 3-1 in Premier League on March 13, 2025.

The match was played at Mbale Municipal Stadium in Mbale.