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Mbabane Swallows vs Young Buffaloes — Premier League 2020

Mbabane Swallows
Mbabane Swallows
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Young Buffaloes
Young Buffaloes
5/1/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 26

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Mbabane Swallows36%
×Draw27%
Young Buffaloes37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mbabane Swallows
1.26
Young Buffaloes
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 86 away

creates per match

Mbabane Swallows
1.74
Young Buffaloes
1.86

allows per match

Mbabane Swallows
0.71
Young Buffaloes
0.78

finishing

Mbabane Swallows+0.00on par
Young Buffaloes+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mbabane Swallows ↓

Young Buffaloes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Mbabane Swallows or draw
63%
Mbabane Swallows or Young Buffaloes
73%
Draw or Young Buffaloes
64%

Winning margin

Mbabane Swallows wins by 2+
16%
Young Buffaloes wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Mbabane Swallows 1+ goals
72%
Mbabane Swallows 2+ goals
36%
Mbabane Swallows 3+ goals
13%
Young Buffaloes 1+ goals
72%
Young Buffaloes 2+ goals
37%
Young Buffaloes 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Mbabane Swallows (draw refunded)
49%
Young Buffaloes (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mbabane Swallows at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.71 · 85 matches

Young Buffaloes away — creates 1.86, concedes 0.78 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mbabane Swallows attack 1.74 + Young Buffaloes defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.26

Young Buffaloes attack 1.86 + Mbabane Swallows defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Mbabane Swallows scores more
36%
level
27%
Young Buffaloes scores more
37%

Young Buffaloes at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Young Buffaloes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Mbabane Swallows 0–1 Young Buffaloes

Young Buffaloes beat Mbabane Swallows 1-0 in Premier League on May 1, 2026.